[osflash] AS3 & our future (is: Player adoption rates)
jdowdell at adobe.com
Mon Apr 24 15:51:33 EDT 2006
Summary: I'm expecting consumer adoption rates of Flash Player 9 to even
exceed those of Flash Player 8, which for all practical purposes was
practically instantaneous (in internet terms, at least ;-) .
Nicolas Cannasse wrote:
> Also, remember that what drives Player adoption the most are the
> websites asking the users to upgrade their Player. We could see a great
> adoption curve for Flash 8. That's IMHO thanks to the fact that the new
> features could be used and enjoyed by all kind of Flash users :
> designers and programmers.
> That might not be the case for Flash 8.5 . I guess it will first be
> released with Flex 2 for building Rich Internet Applications and then
> only later Flash 9 - which will still keep Flash <= 8 compatibility. The
> current AS3 enthousiasts are mostly coders that can see the value of
> additional VM speed and features. Since they will not be 8.5-capable IDE
> before Flash 9, I expect the 8.5 player usage - and then adoption - to
> be a lot slower.
Trivia point: The current beta Player will be released as "Flash Player
9", rather than the prior beta name "Flash Player 8.5":
I suspect that the adoption model will not change from the current
"increasing acceleration" type of phenomenon... within its first three
months Flash Player 8 reached half of consumers tested, much faster than
any previous adoption, and since last September we've seen more and more
high-profile sites use Flash video in general (YouTube, Google Video, or
most any recent video site).
These sites may not specify the 9.0 Player, but any updates they trigger
in their audiences will get their audiences equipped with the very
latest Player. Put another way, it's the total number of sites serving
SWF which influence overall adoption rates, not just which features of
SWF these sites use.
Even if Flash Player 9, by some odd change, is adopted at a slower rate
than FP8, the latter's phenomenally rapid uptake by consumers means that
people will still get Flash Player 9 pretty durn fast.
John Dowdell . Adobe Developer Support . San Francisco CA USA
Spam killed my private email -- public record is best, thanks.
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